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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.69+3.21vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.87+4.70vs Predicted
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3University of Washington2.79+4.07vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.90-0.13vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay1.69+5.69vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii3.68-1.57vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.54+4.44vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.57-0.33vs Predicted
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9University of Oregon1.97+1.09vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine2.79-3.01vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University2.21-1.85vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz1.41-0.20vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.07-0.01vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis1.68-2.88vs Predicted
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15California Poly Maritime Academy0.62-0.92vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University1.51-4.38vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University2.22-7.93vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay1.69-7.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.21Brown University3.690.2%1st Place
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6.7University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.1%1st Place
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7.07University of Washington2.790.1%1st Place
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3.87Stanford University3.900.2%1st Place
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10.69California State University Monterey Bay1.690.0%1st Place
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4.43University of Hawaii3.680.1%1st Place
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11.44University of California at Berkeley1.540.0%1st Place
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7.67University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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10.09University of Oregon1.970.0%1st Place
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6.99University of California at Irvine2.790.1%1st Place
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9.15Western Washington University2.210.0%1st Place
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11.8University of California at Santa Cruz1.410.0%1st Place
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12.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.070.0%1st Place
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11.12University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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14.08California Poly Maritime Academy0.620.0%1st Place
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11.62Arizona State University1.510.0%1st Place
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9.07Santa Clara University2.220.0%1st Place
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10.69California State University Monterey Bay1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judge Ryan | 19.8% | 14.8% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Kaschak | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Haelsig | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 19.9% | 18.1% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hanna Miller | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Pokras | 14.1% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Kew | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Balter | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Colin Kincaid | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGrath | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Pastalka | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| Shaun Prestridge | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 16.8% | 19.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Lee | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| William Antrobus | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 36.9% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 2.1% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Wood | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Hanna Miller | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.