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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Michigan2.86+2.60vs Predicted
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2University of Minnesota1.77+4.19vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin3.04+0.14vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin1.88+1.96vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University2.38-0.26vs Predicted
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7Western Michigan University1.25+0.84vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan1.32-0.47vs Predicted
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9University of Notre Dame2.27-4.00vs Predicted
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10Lake Forest College-0.44+2.42vs Predicted
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11University of Chicago0.57-1.20vs Predicted
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12Northern Michigan University-0.02-0.59vs Predicted
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13Michigan State University0.74-3.47vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.21-3.10vs Predicted
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15Michigan State University0.74-5.47vs Predicted
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16Northern Michigan University-0.27-4.07vs Predicted
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18Marquette University0.47-8.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.6University of Michigan2.860.2%1st Place
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6.19University of Minnesota1.770.1%1st Place
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3.14University of Wisconsin3.040.3%1st Place
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5.96University of Wisconsin1.880.1%1st Place
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4.74Northwestern University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.84Western Michigan University1.250.0%1st Place
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7.53University of Michigan1.320.0%1st Place
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5.0University of Notre Dame2.270.1%1st Place
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12.42Lake Forest College-0.440.0%1st Place
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9.8University of Chicago0.570.0%1st Place
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11.41Northern Michigan University-0.020.0%1st Place
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9.53Michigan State University0.740.0%1st Place
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10.9University of Michigan0.210.0%1st Place
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9.53Michigan State University0.740.0%1st Place
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11.93Northern Michigan University-0.270.0%1st Place
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10.0Marquette University0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Graham | 21.6% | 18.4% | 16.1% | 13.7% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Sinn | 6.3% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Trepton | 25.3% | 19.6% | 18.7% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Morley | 6.9% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 11.9% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Trost | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Barch | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Mike Flanigan | 11.0% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chester Wood | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 18.9% | 30.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kang | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| Betsy Grant | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 16.3% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Rocco | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Karinne Smolenyak | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Peter Rocco | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Leon | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 20.4% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Meghan Bouman | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.