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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Michigan2.86+2.63vs Predicted
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2University of Notre Dame2.27+2.89vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin3.04+0.22vs Predicted
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4University of Minnesota1.77+2.44vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University2.38-0.19vs Predicted
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6Western Michigan University1.25+1.98vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan1.32+0.65vs Predicted
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8Lake Forest College-0.44+4.42vs Predicted
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10University of Chicago1.00-1.37vs Predicted
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11Marquette University0.47-0.78vs Predicted
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12Michigan State University0.74-2.65vs Predicted
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13Michigan State University0.74-3.65vs Predicted
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14Northern Michigan University-0.02-2.31vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.21-3.98vs Predicted
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17Northern Michigan University-0.27-4.96vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.88-12.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.63University of Michigan2.860.2%1st Place
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4.89University of Notre Dame2.270.1%1st Place
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3.22University of Wisconsin3.040.2%1st Place
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6.44University of Minnesota1.770.1%1st Place
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4.81Northwestern University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.98Western Michigan University1.250.0%1st Place
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7.65University of Michigan1.320.1%1st Place
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12.42Lake Forest College-0.440.0%1st Place
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8.63University of Chicago1.000.0%1st Place
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10.22Marquette University0.470.0%1st Place
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9.35Michigan State University0.740.0%1st Place
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9.35Michigan State University0.740.0%1st Place
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11.69Northern Michigan University-0.020.0%1st Place
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11.02University of Michigan0.210.0%1st Place
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12.04Northern Michigan University-0.270.0%1st Place
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6.0University of Wisconsin1.880.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Graham | 21.6% | 18.1% | 15.8% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Flanigan | 10.9% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Trepton | 24.3% | 19.7% | 17.9% | 13.8% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Sinn | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 11.8% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Trost | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Barch | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Chester Wood | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 20.0% | 31.9% | 0.0% |
| Zi Chong Kao | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Meghan Bouman | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Peter Rocco | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter Rocco | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Betsy Grant | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 15.7% | 17.3% | 18.5% | 0.0% |
| Karinne Smolenyak | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 16.1% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Leon | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 17.9% | 24.6% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Morley | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.