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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin3.04+2.21vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin1.88+3.89vs Predicted
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3University of Michigan2.86+0.51vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University2.38+0.65vs Predicted
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5University of Notre Dame2.27+0.04vs Predicted
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7University of Minnesota1.77-0.69vs Predicted
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8Western Michigan University1.25-0.24vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.32-1.41vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan0.21+0.75vs Predicted
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11University of Chicago0.57-1.17vs Predicted
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12Marquette University0.47-1.91vs Predicted
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14Michigan State University0.74-4.48vs Predicted
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15Michigan State University0.74-5.48vs Predicted
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16Northern Michigan University-0.02-4.44vs Predicted
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17Northern Michigan University-0.27-5.01vs Predicted
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18Lake Forest College-0.44-5.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.21University of Wisconsin3.040.2%1st Place
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5.89University of Wisconsin1.880.1%1st Place
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3.51University of Michigan2.860.2%1st Place
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4.65Northwestern University2.380.1%1st Place
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5.04University of Notre Dame2.270.1%1st Place
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6.31University of Minnesota1.770.1%1st Place
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7.76Western Michigan University1.250.1%1st Place
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7.59University of Michigan1.320.0%1st Place
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10.75University of Michigan0.210.0%1st Place
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9.83University of Chicago0.570.0%1st Place
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10.09Marquette University0.470.0%1st Place
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9.52Michigan State University0.740.0%1st Place
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9.52Michigan State University0.740.0%1st Place
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11.56Northern Michigan University-0.020.0%1st Place
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11.99Northern Michigan University-0.270.0%1st Place
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12.31Lake Forest College-0.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Trepton | 24.3% | 23.9% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Morley | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Graham | 20.8% | 17.4% | 18.8% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 12.7% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Flanigan | 10.8% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Sinn | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Trost | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Barch | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Karinne Smolenyak | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kang | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Meghan Bouman | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter Rocco | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Rocco | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Betsy Grant | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Leon | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 19.9% | 24.3% | 0.0% |
| Chester Wood | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 17.7% | 31.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.