Race 2B

longfellow-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Steven Drapcho 9.5% 8.8% 8.4% 10.2% 8.6% 11.9% 10.4% 9.7% 12.0% 8.4% 2.0% 0.1%
Jason Michas 13.4% 15.4% 12.8% 12.7% 11.1% 10.1% 7.6% 7.4% 6.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Hunter Mumma 10.8% 10.0% 9.3% 9.0% 10.0% 11.9% 10.5% 11.2% 10.2% 6.0% 1.0% 0.1%
James Rohman 9.4% 11.8% 11.2% 10.5% 10.8% 9.9% 10.7% 10.3% 8.0% 5.9% 1.4% 0.1%
Matthew Paige 8.6% 8.3% 8.9% 9.0% 10.6% 9.2% 9.5% 11.7% 11.1% 10.1% 2.7% 0.3%
Michael Sturges 10.1% 9.4% 8.1% 9.7% 11.7% 10.6% 10.1% 10.2% 9.5% 8.8% 1.7% 0.1%
Neil Forrester 3.7% 3.7% 2.8% 5.0% 4.7% 5.7% 6.4% 9.1% 10.8% 28.0% 16.0% 4.1%
Alexander Jahncke 10.7% 9.2% 11.0% 10.4% 9.4% 8.0% 10.1% 10.8% 9.7% 8.3% 2.3% 0.1%
Adrian Law 10.2% 9.7% 12.6% 10.4% 11.8% 9.4% 11.3% 9.0% 9.7% 4.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Ian Donahue 12.4% 12.4% 13.1% 11.7% 9.7% 11.7% 10.4% 6.9% 7.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Stephanie Clement 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 1.4% 2.5% 6.0% 25.3% 60.5%
Whit Durant 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 2.3% 2.3% 3.0% 7.8% 44.8% 34.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.