← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Northwestern University2.38+3.70vs Predicted
-
2University of Wisconsin1.88+3.96vs Predicted
-
3University of Wisconsin3.04+0.26vs Predicted
-
4University of Notre Dame2.27+0.96vs Predicted
-
5University of Minnesota1.77+1.45vs Predicted
-
6University of Michigan1.32+1.71vs Predicted
-
7University of Michigan2.86-3.37vs Predicted
-
9Western Michigan University1.25-1.11vs Predicted
-
10Michigan State University0.74-0.63vs Predicted
-
11University of Chicago1.00-2.30vs Predicted
-
12Marquette University0.47-1.84vs Predicted
-
13Michigan State University0.74-3.63vs Predicted
-
14University of Michigan0.21-2.88vs Predicted
-
16Northern Michigan University-0.27-3.81vs Predicted
-
17Lake Forest College-0.44-4.55vs Predicted
-
18Northern Michigan University-0.02-6.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.7Northwestern University2.380.1%1st Place
-
5.96University of Wisconsin1.880.1%1st Place
-
3.26University of Wisconsin3.040.2%1st Place
-
4.96University of Notre Dame2.270.1%1st Place
-
6.45University of Minnesota1.770.1%1st Place
-
7.71University of Michigan1.320.0%1st Place
-
3.63University of Michigan2.860.2%1st Place
-
7.89Western Michigan University1.250.0%1st Place
-
9.37Michigan State University0.740.0%1st Place
-
8.7University of Chicago1.000.0%1st Place
-
10.16Marquette University0.470.0%1st Place
-
9.37Michigan State University0.740.0%1st Place
-
11.12University of Michigan0.210.0%1st Place
-
12.19Northern Michigan University-0.270.0%1st Place
-
12.45Lake Forest College-0.440.0%1st Place
-
11.45Northern Michigan University-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Pedrick | 13.3% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Morley | 6.3% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Trepton | 23.9% | 19.6% | 17.7% | 14.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Flanigan | 12.0% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Sinn | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Barch | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Graham | 19.4% | 19.2% | 16.8% | 14.0% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Trost | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Peter Rocco | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Zi Chong Kao | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Meghan Bouman | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Peter Rocco | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Karinne Smolenyak | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Leon | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 19.8% | 26.8% | 0.0% |
| Chester Wood | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 18.6% | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Betsy Grant | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.