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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.84+2.35vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.55+2.17vs Predicted
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3Tufts University0.38+3.56vs Predicted
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4Boston University0.56+1.74vs Predicted
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5Boston University0.25+1.74vs Predicted
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6Harvard University-0.84+3.56vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.60-0.76vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.10-3.40vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.12-2.04vs Predicted
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10Brown University0.38-3.59vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University-0.42-2.47vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy-0.65-2.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.35Roger Williams University1.8423.1%1st Place
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4.17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.5515.1%1st Place
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6.56Tufts University0.386.5%1st Place
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5.74Boston University0.568.3%1st Place
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6.74Boston University0.257.0%1st Place
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9.56Harvard University-0.842.1%1st Place
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6.24Connecticut College0.607.1%1st Place
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4.6University of Rhode Island1.1013.0%1st Place
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6.96Northeastern University0.125.2%1st Place
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6.41Brown University0.387.3%1st Place
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8.53Northeastern University-0.423.2%1st Place
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9.14Maine Maritime Academy-0.652.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Mastovsky | 23.1% | 20.7% | 17.1% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Elliott | 15.1% | 16.8% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Harry Kaya Prager | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 3.2% |
| Gavin Monaghan | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Richard Kalich | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 3.9% |
| Christina Chen | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 19.8% | 33.5% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| Sam Ingalls | 13.0% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Samuel Rooks | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| Charles Case | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 3.5% |
| Tyler Meadows | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 17.8% | 18.1% |
| Griffin Stolp | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 18.6% | 27.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.