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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Minnesota1.95+3.65vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin1.29+4.14vs Predicted
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3Western Michigan University1.25+3.34vs Predicted
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4University of Notre Dame1.37+2.12vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University2.37-1.20vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan3.02-3.30vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin1.53-1.56vs Predicted
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9Michigan State University1.36-2.92vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan-0.02-0.32vs Predicted
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11University of Chicago0.33-2.14vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan-0.67-0.86vs Predicted
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13Northern Michigan University-0.60-2.04vs Predicted
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15Northern Michigan University-1.42-2.63vs Predicted
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16Lake Forest College-0.57-5.27vs Predicted
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17Michigan State University1.36-10.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.65University of Minnesota1.950.1%1st Place
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6.14University of Wisconsin1.290.1%1st Place
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6.34Western Michigan University1.250.1%1st Place
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6.12University of Notre Dame1.370.1%1st Place
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3.8Northwestern University2.370.2%1st Place
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2.7University of Michigan3.020.3%1st Place
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5.44University of Wisconsin1.530.1%1st Place
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6.08Michigan State University1.360.1%1st Place
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9.68University of Michigan-0.020.0%1st Place
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8.86University of Chicago0.330.0%1st Place
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11.14University of Michigan-0.670.0%1st Place
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10.96Northern Michigan University-0.600.0%1st Place
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12.37Northern Michigan University-1.420.0%1st Place
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10.73Lake Forest College-0.570.0%1st Place
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6.08Michigan State University1.360.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grosch | 12.1% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Tobias | 5.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aras Karaitis | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Power | 5.4% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Cornew | 16.5% | 18.1% | 16.4% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Seago | 33.4% | 22.2% | 16.4% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Sitter | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bill Weiland | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner DePriest | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 17.3% | 15.2% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Melita Aquino | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 15.5% | 11.3% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Shope | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 17.1% | 24.0% | 15.6% | 0.0% |
| Douglas White III | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 18.1% | 18.6% | 16.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Small | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 18.4% | 48.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Woldt | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 18.8% | 20.6% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Bill Weiland | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.