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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University2.37+2.75vs Predicted
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2University of Minnesota1.95+2.52vs Predicted
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3University of Notre Dame1.37+3.04vs Predicted
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4Michigan State University1.36+2.11vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan3.02-2.37vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin1.29+0.35vs Predicted
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7Western Michigan University1.25-0.86vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.53-2.33vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan-0.02+0.68vs Predicted
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11University of Chicago0.33-2.13vs Predicted
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13Michigan State University1.36-6.89vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan-0.67-2.85vs Predicted
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15Northern Michigan University-0.60-4.03vs Predicted
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16Northern Michigan University-1.42-3.62vs Predicted
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17Lake Forest College-0.57-6.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75Northwestern University2.370.2%1st Place
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4.52University of Minnesota1.950.1%1st Place
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6.04University of Notre Dame1.370.1%1st Place
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6.11Michigan State University1.360.1%1st Place
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2.63University of Michigan3.020.3%1st Place
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6.35University of Wisconsin1.290.1%1st Place
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6.14Western Michigan University1.250.1%1st Place
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5.67University of Wisconsin1.530.1%1st Place
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9.68University of Michigan-0.020.0%1st Place
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8.87University of Chicago0.330.0%1st Place
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6.11Michigan State University1.360.1%1st Place
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11.15University of Michigan-0.670.0%1st Place
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10.97Northern Michigan University-0.600.0%1st Place
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12.38Northern Michigan University-1.420.0%1st Place
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10.74Lake Forest College-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Cornew | 18.2% | 18.2% | 17.4% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Grosch | 10.6% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Power | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bill Weiland | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Seago | 32.2% | 25.9% | 16.2% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Tobias | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aras Karaitis | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Molly Sitter | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner DePriest | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 17.1% | 14.6% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Melita Aquino | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 15.1% | 11.8% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Bill Weiland | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Shope | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 17.9% | 23.9% | 15.6% | 0.0% |
| Douglas White III | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 17.8% | 18.9% | 16.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Small | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 18.4% | 48.2% | 0.0% |
| Laura Woldt | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 19.1% | 20.3% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.