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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Notre Dame1.37+4.99vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University2.37+0.67vs Predicted
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4University of Minnesota1.95+0.61vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin1.29+1.31vs Predicted
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6Michigan State University1.36+0.21vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan3.02-4.32vs Predicted
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8Western Michigan University1.25-1.85vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin1.53-3.32vs Predicted
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10Michigan State University1.36-3.79vs Predicted
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11University of Chicago0.33-2.21vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan-0.02-2.29vs Predicted
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13Northern Michigan University-1.42-0.48vs Predicted
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14Northern Michigan University-0.60-3.06vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.67-5.02vs Predicted
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17Lake Forest College-0.57-6.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.99University of Notre Dame1.370.1%1st Place
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3.67Northwestern University2.370.2%1st Place
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4.61University of Minnesota1.950.1%1st Place
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6.31University of Wisconsin1.290.1%1st Place
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6.21Michigan State University1.360.1%1st Place
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2.68University of Michigan3.020.3%1st Place
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6.15Western Michigan University1.250.1%1st Place
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5.68University of Wisconsin1.530.1%1st Place
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6.21Michigan State University1.360.1%1st Place
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8.79University of Chicago0.330.0%1st Place
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9.71University of Michigan-0.020.0%1st Place
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12.52Northern Michigan University-1.420.0%1st Place
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10.94Northern Michigan University-0.600.0%1st Place
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10.98University of Michigan-0.670.0%1st Place
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10.76Lake Forest College-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Power | 6.6% | 5.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Cornew | 17.5% | 19.3% | 16.0% | 15.3% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Grosch | 12.3% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Tobias | 5.9% | 4.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bill Weiland | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Seago | 31.9% | 25.4% | 15.6% | 11.7% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aras Karaitis | 5.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Molly Sitter | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bill Weiland | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Melita Aquino | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 14.8% | 14.6% | 11.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Tanner DePriest | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 14.5% | 15.9% | 11.9% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Small | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 18.6% | 49.5% | 0.0% |
| Douglas White III | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 12.3% | 14.5% | 16.3% | 20.1% | 15.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Shope | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 17.2% | 21.7% | 15.6% | 0.0% |
| Laura Woldt | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 19.3% | 20.8% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.