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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Minnesota1.95+3.62vs Predicted
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2University of Notre Dame1.37+3.87vs Predicted
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3Michigan State University1.36+3.02vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University2.37-0.21vs Predicted
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5Western Michigan University1.25+1.46vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin1.29+0.36vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan3.02-5.44vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin1.53-3.33vs Predicted
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10Michigan State University1.36-3.98vs Predicted
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11University of Chicago0.33-2.21vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-0.67-1.88vs Predicted
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14Northern Michigan University-0.60-2.97vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.02-5.36vs Predicted
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16Northern Michigan University-1.42-3.68vs Predicted
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17Lake Forest College-0.57-6.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.62University of Minnesota1.950.1%1st Place
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5.87University of Notre Dame1.370.1%1st Place
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6.02Michigan State University1.360.1%1st Place
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3.79Northwestern University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.46Western Michigan University1.250.0%1st Place
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6.36University of Wisconsin1.290.1%1st Place
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2.56University of Michigan3.020.3%1st Place
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5.67University of Wisconsin1.530.1%1st Place
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6.02Michigan State University1.360.1%1st Place
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8.79University of Chicago0.330.0%1st Place
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11.12University of Michigan-0.670.0%1st Place
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11.03Northern Michigan University-0.600.0%1st Place
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9.64University of Michigan-0.020.0%1st Place
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12.32Northern Michigan University-1.420.0%1st Place
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10.75Lake Forest College-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grosch | 11.1% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Power | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bill Weiland | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Cornew | 16.8% | 17.6% | 16.5% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aras Karaitis | 4.3% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eric Tobias | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Seago | 34.0% | 24.0% | 16.7% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Sitter | 7.8% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bill Weiland | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Melita Aquino | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Shope | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 16.1% | 22.5% | 17.2% | 0.0% |
| Douglas White III | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 18.1% | 21.8% | 15.1% | 0.0% |
| Tanner DePriest | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 15.4% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Michael Small | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 17.6% | 46.9% | 0.0% |
| Laura Woldt | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 20.1% | 19.4% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.