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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Minnesota1.95+3.64vs Predicted
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2University of Notre Dame1.37+3.91vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University2.37-0.31vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin1.53+0.73vs Predicted
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6Western Michigan University1.25+0.54vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin1.29-0.63vs Predicted
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8Michigan State University1.36-2.14vs Predicted
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9University of Chicago0.33-0.30vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan3.02-7.35vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan-0.02-1.29vs Predicted
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12Michigan State University1.36-6.14vs Predicted
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14Northern Michigan University-0.60-2.98vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.67-3.92vs Predicted
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16Northern Michigan University-1.42-3.65vs Predicted
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17Lake Forest College-0.57-6.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.64University of Minnesota1.950.1%1st Place
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5.91University of Notre Dame1.370.1%1st Place
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3.69Northwestern University2.370.2%1st Place
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5.73University of Wisconsin1.530.1%1st Place
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6.54Western Michigan University1.250.0%1st Place
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6.37University of Wisconsin1.290.1%1st Place
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5.86Michigan State University1.360.1%1st Place
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8.7University of Chicago0.330.0%1st Place
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2.65University of Michigan3.020.3%1st Place
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9.71University of Michigan-0.020.0%1st Place
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5.86Michigan State University1.360.1%1st Place
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11.02Northern Michigan University-0.600.0%1st Place
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11.08University of Michigan-0.670.0%1st Place
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12.35Northern Michigan University-1.420.0%1st Place
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10.75Lake Forest College-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grosch | 11.6% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Power | 6.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Cornew | 18.8% | 18.4% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Sitter | 6.2% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aras Karaitis | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Eric Tobias | 6.0% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bill Weiland | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Melita Aquino | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 15.2% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Seago | 32.7% | 23.1% | 16.8% | 12.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner DePriest | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 15.9% | 15.2% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Bill Weiland | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Douglas White III | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 17.0% | 23.6% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Shope | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 15.4% | 18.5% | 18.2% | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| Michael Small | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 20.1% | 46.5% | 0.0% |
| Laura Woldt | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 19.4% | 19.0% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.