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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.53+5.05vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.68+3.51vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.10+1.53vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.74+1.47vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.65+0.62vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.97-1.12vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.53+1.17vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.74-2.63vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.67-3.60vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.81-4.81vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire0.10-0.35vs Predicted
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12McGill University-0.38-0.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05Roger Williams University2.530.1%1st Place
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5.51University of Vermont2.680.1%1st Place
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4.53Harvard University3.100.2%1st Place
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5.47Boston University2.740.1%1st Place
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5.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.650.1%1st Place
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4.88Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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8.17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.530.0%1st Place
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5.37University of Vermont2.740.1%1st Place
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5.4Tufts University2.670.1%1st Place
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5.19Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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10.65University of New Hampshire0.100.0%1st Place
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11.14McGill University-0.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Paige | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 0.1% |
| Michael Sturges | 8.6% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Jason Michas | 15.8% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Law | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Steven Drapcho | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Ian Donahue | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Neil Forrester | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 28.4% | 15.8% | 3.7% |
| Hunter Mumma | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Jahncke | 9.4% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 5.8% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| James Rohman | 11.0% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Whit Durant | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 41.2% | 36.7% |
| Stephanie Clement | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 27.0% | 58.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.