← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University2.42+3.35vs Predicted
-
2College of Charleston1.81+5.86vs Predicted
-
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+4.87vs Predicted
-
4Boston College2.09+3.04vs Predicted
-
5University of Vermont0.48+8.74vs Predicted
-
6University of Rhode Island0.99+5.02vs Predicted
-
7Brown University2.04+0.06vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Naval Academy1.18+3.22vs Predicted
-
9Harvard University2.10-1.07vs Predicted
-
10Tufts University0.71+2.99vs Predicted
-
11Dartmouth College1.71-2.60vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-2.61vs Predicted
-
13George Washington University0.93-1.23vs Predicted
-
14Fordham University1.13-1.67vs Predicted
-
15University of Pennsylvania0.81-2.57vs Predicted
-
16Stanford University2.19-10.04vs Predicted
-
17Northeastern University1.22-7.48vs Predicted
-
18Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-7.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.35Yale University2.4218.8%1st Place
-
7.86College of Charleston1.817.6%1st Place
-
7.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.776.6%1st Place
-
7.04Boston College2.098.2%1st Place
-
13.74University of Vermont0.481.3%1st Place
-
11.02University of Rhode Island0.993.9%1st Place
-
7.06Brown University2.047.8%1st Place
-
11.22U. S. Naval Academy1.182.4%1st Place
-
7.93Harvard University2.107.4%1st Place
-
12.99Tufts University0.711.4%1st Place
-
8.4Dartmouth College1.716.3%1st Place
-
9.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.034.2%1st Place
-
11.77George Washington University0.932.4%1st Place
-
12.33Fordham University1.132.1%1st Place
-
12.43University of Pennsylvania0.811.9%1st Place
-
5.96Stanford University2.1910.4%1st Place
-
9.52Northeastern University1.224.0%1st Place
-
10.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.973.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 18.8% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emma Tallman | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 14.9% | 23.6% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ava Farley | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 5.1% |
| Cordelia Burn | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Julia Shannon-Grillo | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 18.3% |
| bella casaretto | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 11.7% |
| Margaux Cowles | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 14.2% |
| Sophie Fisher | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Eva Ermlich | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.