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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+3.25vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+5.71vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.19+3.12vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+5.43vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.04+2.01vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston1.81+1.85vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.09+0.12vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania0.81+4.23vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.10-0.97vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-0.03vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.13+1.47vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.22-2.27vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College1.60-3.83vs Predicted
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14Tufts University0.71-1.12vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.48-1.59vs Predicted
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16George Washington University0.93-4.33vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy1.18-5.98vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island0.99-7.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.25Yale University2.4219.9%1st Place
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7.71Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.776.1%1st Place
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6.12Stanford University2.1911.8%1st Place
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9.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.034.5%1st Place
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7.01Brown University2.048.4%1st Place
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7.85College of Charleston1.818.2%1st Place
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7.12Boston College2.097.3%1st Place
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12.23University of Pennsylvania0.811.3%1st Place
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8.03Harvard University2.106.3%1st Place
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9.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.2%1st Place
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12.47Fordham University1.131.6%1st Place
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9.73Northeastern University1.224.0%1st Place
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9.17Dartmouth College1.604.8%1st Place
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12.88Tufts University0.711.5%1st Place
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13.41University of Vermont0.481.8%1st Place
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11.67George Washington University0.932.4%1st Place
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11.02U. S. Naval Academy1.183.4%1st Place
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10.94University of Rhode Island0.992.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 19.9% | 15.7% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Sophie Fisher | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Emma Tallman | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Margaux Cowles | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.2% |
| Cordelia Burn | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.2% |
| Eva Ermlich | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| Taylor Eastman | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Julia Shannon-Grillo | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 18.4% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 23.9% |
| Avery Canavan | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 10.0% |
| Ava Farley | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.