Race 5B

longfellow-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ian Donahue 13.4% 10.8% 10.4% 11.2% 13.5% 10.3% 9.0% 9.4% 6.6% 4.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Jason Michas 13.7% 16.1% 11.9% 14.1% 9.6% 9.0% 8.9% 7.5% 5.7% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Alexander Jahncke 10.2% 9.3% 9.7% 9.3% 8.2% 10.2% 11.0% 11.9% 11.6% 6.8% 1.8% 0.0%
Michael Sturges 7.3% 10.5% 11.3% 9.9% 10.0% 11.0% 10.2% 10.4% 9.9% 7.1% 2.2% 0.2%
Steven Drapcho 9.8% 8.6% 10.2% 9.8% 10.0% 10.6% 9.6% 10.2% 9.8% 8.2% 3.0% 0.2%
Adrian Law 11.1% 8.9% 9.4% 9.5% 11.7% 10.8% 10.6% 8.1% 11.3% 7.1% 1.3% 0.2%
Hunter Mumma 11.3% 11.1% 9.5% 11.2% 10.0% 9.6% 9.9% 10.7% 8.2% 6.7% 1.7% 0.1%
Neil Forrester 2.8% 4.8% 3.1% 4.5% 4.6% 4.8% 7.4% 8.6% 11.4% 28.2% 16.4% 3.4%
Matthew Paige 7.1% 9.0% 10.6% 9.4% 10.0% 11.2% 10.5% 10.7% 11.2% 7.9% 2.3% 0.1%
James Rohman 11.8% 10.0% 12.1% 10.0% 10.7% 10.2% 10.8% 8.5% 8.2% 6.0% 1.5% 0.2%
Whit Durant 1.1% 0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 2.3% 3.6% 9.1% 41.7% 36.3%
Stephanie Clement 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 1.7% 2.5% 5.4% 26.7% 59.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.