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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.04+6.06vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.81+5.99vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.42+1.09vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.19+2.19vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+4.28vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+2.03vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.10+1.10vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.22+1.63vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+0.74vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College1.60-0.98vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island0.99-0.15vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.09-4.84vs Predicted
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13Tufts University0.710.00vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania0.81-2.01vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.13-2.53vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.48-2.40vs Predicted
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17George Washington University0.93-5.21vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy1.18-6.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.06Brown University2.048.5%1st Place
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7.99College of Charleston1.815.9%1st Place
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4.09Yale University2.4219.8%1st Place
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6.19Stanford University2.199.4%1st Place
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9.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.035.0%1st Place
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8.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.777.1%1st Place
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8.1Harvard University2.106.9%1st Place
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9.63Northeastern University1.223.8%1st Place
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9.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.2%1st Place
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9.02Dartmouth College1.605.1%1st Place
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10.85University of Rhode Island0.993.0%1st Place
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7.16Boston College2.097.8%1st Place
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13.0Tufts University0.712.3%1st Place
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11.99University of Pennsylvania0.812.5%1st Place
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12.47Fordham University1.131.8%1st Place
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13.6University of Vermont0.481.4%1st Place
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11.79George Washington University0.932.4%1st Place
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11.02U. S. Naval Academy1.183.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brielle Willoughby | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Emma Tallman | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 19.8% | 18.1% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Fisher | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Cordelia Burn | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Eva Ermlich | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% |
| Taylor Eastman | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.5% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Julia Shannon-Grillo | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 19.1% |
| Margaux Cowles | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 12.4% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 13.0% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 23.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Ava Farley | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 6.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.