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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+10.42vs Predicted
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2Boston College1.58+6.02vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63+4.70vs Predicted
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4Harvard University1.90+3.52vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.10+2.38vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston1.26+3.43vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.07-0.69vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy0.83+3.38vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.16+1.10vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85+0.98vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island0.79-0.25vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.07-1.58vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.33-4.47vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.55-9.32vs Predicted
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15Tufts University0.96-4.28vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.18-5.68vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.24-3.11vs Predicted
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18Fordham University0.71-6.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.912.9%1st Place
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8.02Boston College1.586.6%1st Place
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7.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.637.5%1st Place
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7.52Harvard University1.908.5%1st Place
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7.38Dartmouth College2.108.7%1st Place
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9.43College of Charleston1.264.0%1st Place
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6.31Stanford University2.079.9%1st Place
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11.38U. S. Naval Academy0.832.8%1st Place
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10.1University of Pennsylvania1.164.0%1st Place
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10.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.853.5%1st Place
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10.75University of Rhode Island0.792.7%1st Place
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10.42George Washington University1.073.6%1st Place
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8.53Brown University1.335.9%1st Place
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4.68Yale University2.5517.4%1st Place
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10.72Tufts University0.963.0%1st Place
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10.32Northeastern University1.184.2%1st Place
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13.89University of Vermont0.241.8%1st Place
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11.46Fordham University0.712.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% |
| Libby Redmond | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| Lucy Brock | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Sarah Burn | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Sarah Young | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Emily Alfortish | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Ellie Harned | 9.9% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Margo Cicero | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.6% |
| Adra Ivancich | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% |
| Julia Conneely | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% |
| Leah Rickard | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Emma Cowles | 17.4% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marina Garrido | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.5% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 29.9% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.