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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+10.47vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.26+7.56vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.55+1.81vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.07+2.29vs Predicted
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5Harvard University1.90+2.27vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy0.83+5.39vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island0.79+3.65vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-0.38vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85+1.95vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.07+0.63vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.16-1.18vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.10-4.54vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.33-4.41vs Predicted
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14Tufts University0.96-3.36vs Predicted
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15Boston College1.58-6.71vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.18-5.50vs Predicted
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17Fordham University0.71-5.52vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont0.24-4.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.912.4%1st Place
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9.56College of Charleston1.264.8%1st Place
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4.81Yale University2.5515.8%1st Place
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6.29Stanford University2.0710.3%1st Place
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7.27Harvard University1.908.0%1st Place
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11.39U. S. Naval Academy0.832.9%1st Place
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10.65University of Rhode Island0.793.8%1st Place
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7.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.637.1%1st Place
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10.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.853.6%1st Place
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10.63George Washington University1.074.0%1st Place
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9.82University of Pennsylvania1.164.8%1st Place
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7.46Dartmouth College2.107.3%1st Place
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8.59Brown University1.337.0%1st Place
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10.64Tufts University0.963.4%1st Place
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8.29Boston College1.586.3%1st Place
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10.5Northeastern University1.183.8%1st Place
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11.48Fordham University0.712.6%1st Place
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13.57University of Vermont0.242.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% |
| Emily Alfortish | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| Emma Cowles | 15.8% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Harned | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Sarah Burn | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Margo Cicero | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 8.3% |
| Leah Rickard | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| Lucy Brock | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Julia Conneely | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 4.7% |
| Adra Ivancich | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% |
| Sarah Young | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Marina Garrido | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Libby Redmond | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 11.6% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 29.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.