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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.10+6.46vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.33+6.59vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.55+1.79vs Predicted
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4Boston College1.58+4.18vs Predicted
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5Tufts University0.96+5.58vs Predicted
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6Harvard University1.90+1.52vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston1.26+2.37vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.56vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy0.83+2.44vs Predicted
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10Stanford University2.07-3.74vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-3.29vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.07-1.54vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.16-3.23vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.18-3.44vs Predicted
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15Fordham University0.71-3.38vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.24-2.21vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island0.79-6.53vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85-7.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.46Dartmouth College2.106.9%1st Place
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8.59Brown University1.335.5%1st Place
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4.79Yale University2.5516.0%1st Place
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8.18Boston College1.587.3%1st Place
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10.58Tufts University0.964.0%1st Place
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7.52Harvard University1.907.6%1st Place
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9.37College of Charleston1.264.5%1st Place
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11.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.913.3%1st Place
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11.44U. S. Naval Academy0.832.9%1st Place
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6.26Stanford University2.0710.5%1st Place
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7.71Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.636.7%1st Place
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10.46George Washington University1.073.5%1st Place
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9.77University of Pennsylvania1.164.9%1st Place
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10.56Northeastern University1.184.2%1st Place
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11.62Fordham University0.712.4%1st Place
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13.79University of Vermont0.241.6%1st Place
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10.47University of Rhode Island0.794.3%1st Place
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10.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.854.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Young | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Emma Cowles | 16.0% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Libby Redmond | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Marina Garrido | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% |
| Sarah Burn | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Emily Alfortish | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% |
| Margo Cicero | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.6% |
| Ellie Harned | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% |
| Adra Ivancich | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.2% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 30.1% |
| Leah Rickard | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% |
| Julia Conneely | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.