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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.20+2.04vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont-0.34+1.16vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont-0.64+0.69vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont-1.14+0.93vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-1.97+1.53vs Predicted
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6McGill University-1.51-0.55vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College-1.97-0.67vs Predicted
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8Williams College-1.40-2.81vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College-2.17-2.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.04University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.2022.8%1st Place
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3.16University of Vermont-0.3423.9%1st Place
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3.69University of Vermont-0.6417.3%1st Place
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4.93University of Vermont-1.149.2%1st Place
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6.53Middlebury College-1.974.0%1st Place
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5.45McGill University-1.516.5%1st Place
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6.33Middlebury College-1.974.6%1st Place
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5.19Williams College-1.407.9%1st Place
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6.69Middlebury College-2.173.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Perra | 22.8% | 22.8% | 18.8% | 14.9% | 10.5% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Ocean Smith | 23.9% | 18.9% | 18.3% | 15.6% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Will Broseman | 17.3% | 16.9% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 14.4% | 10.5% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Cameron Luck | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 16.1% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 5.3% |
| Aengus Onken | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 15.3% | 19.4% | 25.7% |
| Alex Anderson | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 10.7% |
| Kate Adams | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 15.8% | 18.9% | 21.9% |
| Max Harthorne | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 15.3% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 5.9% |
| Will Levy | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 20.3% | 29.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.