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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.53+5.00vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.10+2.52vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.68+2.60vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.65+1.68vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.67+0.60vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.53+2.32vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.74-1.70vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.74-2.64vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.97-4.34vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.81-4.83vs Predicted
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11McGill University-0.38+0.16vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire0.10-3.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.0Roger Williams University2.530.1%1st Place
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4.52Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.6University of Vermont2.680.1%1st Place
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5.68Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.650.1%1st Place
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5.6Tufts University2.670.1%1st Place
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8.32Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.530.0%1st Place
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5.3Boston University2.740.1%1st Place
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5.36University of Vermont2.740.1%1st Place
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4.66Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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5.17Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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11.16McGill University-0.380.0%1st Place
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10.64University of New Hampshire0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Paige | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Jason Michas | 14.3% | 14.6% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Michael Sturges | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Steven Drapcho | 8.1% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Jahncke | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Neil Forrester | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 28.6% | 17.0% | 3.7% |
| Adrian Law | 10.5% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Hunter Mumma | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Ian Donahue | 12.8% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| James Rohman | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Clement | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 6.0% | 25.4% | 60.6% |
| Whit Durant | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 9.1% | 43.1% | 34.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.