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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.33+7.78vs Predicted
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2Boston College1.58+6.08vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island0.79+7.82vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.96+6.49vs Predicted
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5Harvard University1.90+2.42vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.07+4.40vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.16+3.10vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.55-3.16vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85+1.97vs Predicted
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10Stanford University2.07-3.87vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.10-3.49vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.24+1.98vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.18-2.67vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-2.35vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston1.26-5.63vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-8.45vs Predicted
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17Fordham University0.71-5.50vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy0.83-6.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.78Brown University1.336.3%1st Place
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8.08Boston College1.587.1%1st Place
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10.82University of Rhode Island0.793.1%1st Place
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10.49Tufts University0.963.5%1st Place
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7.42Harvard University1.907.1%1st Place
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10.4George Washington University1.073.7%1st Place
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10.1University of Pennsylvania1.163.6%1st Place
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4.84Yale University2.5516.0%1st Place
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10.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.853.2%1st Place
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6.13Stanford University2.0710.7%1st Place
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7.51Dartmouth College2.108.2%1st Place
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13.98University of Vermont0.241.3%1st Place
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10.33Northeastern University1.184.2%1st Place
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11.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.912.8%1st Place
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9.37College of Charleston1.265.3%1st Place
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7.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.637.9%1st Place
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11.5Fordham University0.712.9%1st Place
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11.1U. S. Naval Academy0.833.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Costikyan | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Libby Redmond | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Leah Rickard | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% |
| Marina Garrido | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% |
| Sarah Burn | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% |
| Adra Ivancich | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% |
| Emma Cowles | 16.0% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Conneely | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% |
| Ellie Harned | 10.7% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Young | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 31.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% |
| Emily Alfortish | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% |
| Lucy Brock | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.0% |
| Margo Cicero | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.