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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.10+6.32vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.33+6.67vs Predicted
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3Boston College1.58+5.09vs Predicted
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4Harvard University1.90+3.44vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85+5.92vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island0.79+4.33vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.55-2.25vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.07-1.84vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston1.26+0.25vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.71+1.46vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.07-0.34vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.16-1.86vs Predicted
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13Tufts University0.96-2.53vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.24+0.13vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-7.28vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.18-5.63vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy0.83-5.63vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-6.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.32Dartmouth College2.107.8%1st Place
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8.67Brown University1.335.6%1st Place
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8.09Boston College1.586.9%1st Place
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7.44Harvard University1.907.5%1st Place
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10.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.853.0%1st Place
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10.33University of Rhode Island0.794.8%1st Place
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4.75Yale University2.5516.2%1st Place
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6.16Stanford University2.0710.5%1st Place
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9.25College of Charleston1.264.9%1st Place
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11.46Fordham University0.712.6%1st Place
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10.66George Washington University1.073.5%1st Place
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10.14University of Pennsylvania1.164.2%1st Place
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10.47Tufts University0.963.5%1st Place
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14.13University of Vermont0.241.3%1st Place
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7.72Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.638.1%1st Place
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10.37Northeastern University1.183.8%1st Place
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11.37U. S. Naval Academy0.832.9%1st Place
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11.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.912.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Young | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Libby Redmond | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Sarah Burn | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Julia Conneely | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% |
| Leah Rickard | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% |
| Emma Cowles | 16.2% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Harned | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Emily Alfortish | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% |
| Adra Ivancich | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% |
| Marina Garrido | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 32.9% |
| Lucy Brock | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% |
| Margo Cicero | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.