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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont-0.34+2.16vs Predicted
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2University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.20+0.93vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont-0.64+0.67vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-1.97+2.65vs Predicted
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5Williams College-1.40+0.06vs Predicted
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6McGill University-1.51-0.50vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College-1.97-0.51vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont-1.14-3.18vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College-2.17-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.16University of Vermont-0.3421.9%1st Place
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2.93University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.2025.5%1st Place
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3.67University of Vermont-0.6417.0%1st Place
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6.65Middlebury College-1.973.5%1st Place
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5.06Williams College-1.408.4%1st Place
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5.5McGill University-1.516.7%1st Place
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6.49Middlebury College-1.974.0%1st Place
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4.82University of Vermont-1.149.8%1st Place
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6.73Middlebury College-2.173.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocean Smith | 21.9% | 21.0% | 18.8% | 14.5% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Cole Perra | 25.5% | 23.2% | 18.6% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Will Broseman | 17.0% | 17.4% | 16.4% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Aengus Onken | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 21.8% | 26.3% |
| Max Harthorne | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 5.8% |
| Alex Anderson | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 9.8% |
| Kate Adams | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 16.1% | 19.0% | 23.4% |
| Cameron Luck | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 10.1% | 4.0% |
| Will Levy | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 14.8% | 18.7% | 28.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.