Race 10B

longfellow-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Ian Donahue 16.1% 17.2% 16.1% 12.5% 13.2% 10.8% 7.6% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Steven Drapcho 13.1% 13.6% 14.0% 12.7% 10.9% 10.1% 11.4% 8.2% 4.7% 1.2% 0.1%
Hunter Mumma 13.5% 12.0% 14.8% 11.3% 12.0% 13.0% 10.8% 7.8% 3.5% 1.2% 0.1%
Adrian Law 12.9% 13.4% 13.4% 12.8% 13.4% 11.3% 8.9% 8.5% 3.8% 1.5% 0.1%
Matthew Paige 13.0% 11.3% 11.8% 12.1% 11.1% 11.4% 11.0% 9.5% 6.3% 2.4% 0.1%
Michael Sturges 13.7% 14.6% 11.3% 14.3% 12.0% 10.3% 8.9% 8.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.1%
Neil Forrester 5.2% 4.9% 5.5% 6.2% 7.8% 8.9% 9.7% 15.5% 21.7% 11.7% 2.9%
Nick Waldo 5.5% 4.9% 6.4% 7.7% 8.8% 10.2% 11.3% 13.7% 18.3% 11.1% 2.1%
Ruth Bodell 5.2% 6.3% 5.1% 7.8% 7.0% 9.8% 14.1% 14.5% 17.4% 9.6% 3.2%
Whit Durant 1.0% 1.5% 0.8% 1.7% 2.2% 2.6% 3.7% 5.9% 11.7% 34.1% 34.8%
Stephanie Clement 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 2.6% 3.6% 6.4% 25.0% 56.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.