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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+3.02vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.54+4.85vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.40+1.12vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara0.57+2.82vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+0.59vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.38+1.69vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.31+0.49vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.66-1.31vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.51+2.36vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-2.10+3.56vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.40-0.28vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.96+0.17vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-0.91-0.63vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.36-3.41vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis0.07-6.99vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-2.51vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-1.68-2.57vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-2.73-1.14vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-2.90-1.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.02California Poly Maritime Academy1.6218.1%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Los Angeles0.547.1%1st Place
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4.12University of Southern California1.4018.9%1st Place
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6.82University of California at Santa Barbara0.576.7%1st Place
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5.59California Poly Maritime Academy0.9111.2%1st Place
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7.69University of Southern California0.385.8%1st Place
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7.49University of California at Berkeley0.316.2%1st Place
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6.69Arizona State University0.667.4%1st Place
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11.36University of California at San Diego-0.511.8%1st Place
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13.56University of California at Los Angeles-2.100.9%1st Place
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10.72University of California at Berkeley-0.403.1%1st Place
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12.17University of California at Los Angeles-0.962.4%1st Place
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12.37Arizona State University-0.911.7%1st Place
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10.59University of California at Irvine-0.362.4%1st Place
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8.01University of California at Davis0.074.3%1st Place
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13.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.480.9%1st Place
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14.43University of California at San Diego-1.680.6%1st Place
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16.86University of California at San Diego-2.730.3%1st Place
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17.16Arizona State University-2.900.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Myers | 18.1% | 16.8% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sanchita Pant | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 18.9% | 15.7% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Erisman | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conner Skewes | 11.2% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 10.0% | 3.9% |
| Aivan Durfee | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Conrad Kistler | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 1.6% |
| Sean Kenealy | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 8.6% | 3.8% |
| Grace Richie | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 17.9% | 16.0% | 7.0% |
| Tean Brooks | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 25.9% | 36.8% |
| Corbin Stanley | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 22.7% | 44.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.