Race 11B

longfellow-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Steven Drapcho 10.8% 13.5% 13.0% 12.5% 12.4% 13.4% 11.0% 8.2% 3.7% 1.4% 0.1%
Ian Donahue 19.0% 16.3% 16.5% 12.2% 10.8% 9.9% 7.5% 5.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Adrian Law 13.7% 12.5% 14.9% 10.7% 12.8% 12.2% 10.9% 7.3% 3.8% 1.2% 0.0%
Michael Sturges 12.2% 13.2% 12.2% 13.3% 13.1% 10.3% 10.6% 8.3% 4.9% 1.8% 0.1%
Matthew Paige 12.6% 11.5% 12.0% 12.6% 10.6% 12.0% 10.4% 9.7% 6.1% 2.4% 0.1%
Hunter Mumma 13.9% 15.1% 13.0% 13.5% 12.8% 9.8% 9.1% 7.5% 4.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Neil Forrester 5.4% 4.7% 5.1% 6.2% 8.4% 8.7% 10.0% 15.4% 21.1% 12.1% 2.9%
Ruth Bodell 5.7% 5.6% 6.8% 9.3% 7.9% 11.6% 11.7% 13.1% 16.9% 9.8% 1.6%
Nick Waldo 4.9% 5.8% 4.7% 7.2% 7.8% 7.3% 12.8% 15.9% 19.1% 10.5% 4.0%
Whit Durant 1.1% 1.3% 0.9% 1.6% 2.3% 2.4% 3.8% 6.0% 11.7% 34.2% 34.7%
Stephanie Clement 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 2.4% 2.2% 3.4% 6.2% 25.3% 56.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.