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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara0.57+5.62vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.38+5.55vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.40+1.16vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.66+2.72vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.54+1.73vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.51+5.39vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-2.84vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.07-0.16vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.31-1.21vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-4.28vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.96+1.12vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.36-1.41vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.40-2.24vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-0.91-1.79vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.68-0.53vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-2.41vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-2.73-0.22vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-4.28vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-2.90-1.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62University of California at Santa Barbara0.578.2%1st Place
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7.55University of Southern California0.385.9%1st Place
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4.16University of Southern California1.4017.9%1st Place
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6.72Arizona State University0.668.6%1st Place
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6.73University of California at Los Angeles0.548.5%1st Place
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11.39University of California at San Diego-0.512.1%1st Place
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4.16California Poly Maritime Academy1.6217.5%1st Place
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7.84University of California at Davis0.075.5%1st Place
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7.79University of California at Berkeley0.315.2%1st Place
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5.72California Poly Maritime Academy0.919.6%1st Place
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12.12University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.5%1st Place
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10.59University of California at Irvine-0.363.1%1st Place
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10.76University of California at Berkeley-0.402.2%1st Place
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12.21Arizona State University-0.911.2%1st Place
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14.47University of California at San Diego-1.681.0%1st Place
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13.59University of California at Los Angeles-2.100.7%1st Place
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16.78University of California at San Diego-2.730.3%1st Place
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13.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.480.9%1st Place
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17.1Arizona State University-2.900.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Erisman | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 17.9% | 16.7% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 8.6% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sanchita Pant | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Clay Myers | 17.5% | 17.4% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Wilton Lawton | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Conner Skewes | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 1.5% |
| Nikita Swatek | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Aivan Durfee | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Sean Kenealy | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Grace Richie | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 17.5% | 15.0% | 7.5% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 10.2% | 3.5% |
| Tean Brooks | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 26.1% | 35.6% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 10.2% | 3.8% |
| Corbin Stanley | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 21.8% | 45.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.