← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara0.57+5.99vs Predicted
-
2California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+2.11vs Predicted
-
3University of California at San Diego-0.51+8.52vs Predicted
-
4University of Southern California1.40+0.03vs Predicted
-
5California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+0.57vs Predicted
-
6Arizona State University0.66+0.78vs Predicted
-
7University of Southern California0.38+0.72vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Los Angeles0.54-1.05vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Davis0.07-1.14vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Berkeley0.31-2.21vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Berkeley-0.40-0.05vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Irvine-0.36-1.46vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-0.73vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego-1.58+0.36vs Predicted
-
15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-1.19vs Predicted
-
16Arizona State University-0.91-3.72vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-3.40vs Predicted
-
18University of California at San Diego-2.05-2.43vs Predicted
-
19Arizona State University-2.90-1.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.99University of California at Santa Barbara0.576.9%1st Place
-
4.11California Poly Maritime Academy1.6217.1%1st Place
-
11.52University of California at San Diego-0.512.0%1st Place
-
4.03University of Southern California1.4020.1%1st Place
-
5.57California Poly Maritime Academy0.9111.3%1st Place
-
6.78Arizona State University0.667.1%1st Place
-
7.72University of Southern California0.385.5%1st Place
-
6.95University of California at Los Angeles0.547.6%1st Place
-
7.86University of California at Davis0.074.9%1st Place
-
7.79University of California at Berkeley0.314.8%1st Place
-
10.95University of California at Berkeley-0.402.5%1st Place
-
10.54University of California at Irvine-0.362.8%1st Place
-
12.27University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.9%1st Place
-
14.36University of California at San Diego-1.580.7%1st Place
-
13.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.481.1%1st Place
-
12.28Arizona State University-0.912.2%1st Place
-
13.6University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.1%1st Place
-
15.57University of California at San Diego-2.050.5%1st Place
-
17.31Arizona State University-2.900.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Erisman | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 17.1% | 18.1% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Luke Harris | 20.1% | 17.2% | 14.7% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conner Skewes | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sanchita Pant | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Wilton Lawton | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 1.8% |
| Bella Valente | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 15.6% | 7.8% |
| Colin Thompson | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 6.7% |
| Sean Kenealy | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 2.2% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 4.8% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 23.2% | 18.2% |
| Corbin Stanley | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 57.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.