← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+7.80vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara0.57+4.70vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Davis0.07+4.73vs Predicted
-
4University of Southern California1.40+0.01vs Predicted
-
5California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-0.99vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Berkeley0.31+1.50vs Predicted
-
7University of Southern California0.38+0.35vs Predicted
-
8Arizona State University0.66-1.35vs Predicted
-
9University of California at San Diego-0.51+2.37vs Predicted
-
10California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-4.76vs Predicted
-
11University of California at San Diego-2.05+4.51vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Los Angeles-0.96+0.22vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Berkeley-0.99-0.65vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Irvine-0.36-3.54vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-1.68vs Predicted
-
16Arizona State University-0.91-3.67vs Predicted
-
17University of California at San Diego-1.58-2.92vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Los Angeles-1.29-4.93vs Predicted
-
19Arizona State University-2.90-1.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.274.2%1st Place
-
6.7University of California at Santa Barbara0.577.9%1st Place
-
7.73University of California at Davis0.075.7%1st Place
-
4.01University of Southern California1.4018.9%1st Place
-
4.01California Poly Maritime Academy1.6219.2%1st Place
-
7.5University of California at Berkeley0.315.4%1st Place
-
7.35University of Southern California0.385.7%1st Place
-
6.65Arizona State University0.667.2%1st Place
-
11.37University of California at San Diego-0.511.8%1st Place
-
5.24California Poly Maritime Academy0.9112.4%1st Place
-
15.51University of California at San Diego-2.050.4%1st Place
-
12.22University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.1%1st Place
-
12.35University of California at Berkeley-0.991.9%1st Place
-
10.46University of California at Irvine-0.362.6%1st Place
-
13.32University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.6%1st Place
-
12.33Arizona State University-0.911.9%1st Place
-
14.08University of California at San Diego-1.580.8%1st Place
-
13.07University of California at Los Angeles-1.291.0%1st Place
-
17.31Arizona State University-2.900.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Groom | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Erisman | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 18.9% | 18.9% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 19.2% | 17.1% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Conner Skewes | 12.4% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 24.4% | 18.4% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.5% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 2.5% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 5.8% |
| Sean Kenealy | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 2.2% |
| Bella Valente | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 7.7% |
| Teresa Dang | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 3.9% |
| Corbin Stanley | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 15.0% | 55.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.