Race 12B

longfellow-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Steven Drapcho 10.6% 13.1% 13.2% 13.6% 11.7% 13.9% 11.1% 7.4% 3.8% 1.5% 0.1%
Adrian Law 14.6% 14.9% 13.3% 11.9% 12.8% 10.8% 9.3% 7.7% 3.5% 1.1% 0.1%
Matthew Paige 10.8% 10.8% 12.2% 10.7% 10.7% 13.8% 12.1% 11.5% 5.6% 1.7% 0.1%
Hunter Mumma 13.8% 11.9% 13.9% 12.8% 14.3% 11.2% 8.2% 8.5% 3.6% 1.7% 0.1%
Ruth Bodell 4.8% 6.5% 7.3% 7.3% 9.5% 7.8% 13.2% 14.5% 18.7% 9.1% 1.3%
Michael Sturges 13.1% 13.9% 12.8% 14.4% 12.1% 10.1% 9.0% 8.0% 5.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Ian Donahue 21.3% 17.5% 15.3% 11.1% 10.8% 10.2% 6.6% 4.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Nick Waldo 5.3% 4.9% 5.3% 9.5% 7.9% 10.1% 13.0% 13.9% 16.8% 11.5% 1.8%
Neil Forrester 4.0% 5.1% 4.4% 6.2% 7.0% 6.9% 11.6% 16.4% 20.6% 12.7% 5.1%
Whit Durant 1.1% 0.6% 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 2.8% 3.7% 5.1% 12.0% 34.6% 34.7%
Stephanie Clement 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 2.4% 2.2% 3.0% 7.6% 24.2% 56.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.