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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+2.93vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.31+5.56vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University0.66+3.55vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+4.57vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.38+2.45vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.40-1.98vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-1.54vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.07-0.28vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.51+2.27vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.99+2.23vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara0.57-4.41vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-2.05+3.45vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.29+0.22vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.36-3.63vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-2.96vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-0.91-3.97vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-2.90+0.29vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.58-3.78vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-1.61-4.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.93California Poly Maritime Academy1.6219.4%1st Place
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7.56University of California at Berkeley0.315.1%1st Place
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6.55Arizona State University0.668.6%1st Place
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8.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.275.1%1st Place
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7.45University of Southern California0.386.2%1st Place
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4.02University of Southern California1.4018.9%1st Place
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5.46California Poly Maritime Academy0.9111.2%1st Place
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7.72University of California at Davis0.075.1%1st Place
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11.27University of California at San Diego-0.512.1%1st Place
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12.23University of California at Berkeley-0.991.7%1st Place
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6.59University of California at Santa Barbara0.576.6%1st Place
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15.45University of California at San Diego-2.050.7%1st Place
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13.22University of California at Los Angeles-1.291.6%1st Place
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10.37University of California at Irvine-0.362.4%1st Place
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12.04University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.4%1st Place
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12.03Arizona State University-0.912.1%1st Place
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17.29Arizona State University-2.900.1%1st Place
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14.22University of California at San Diego-1.581.0%1st Place
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14.04University of California at Los Angeles-1.610.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Myers | 19.4% | 17.8% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Edward Ansart | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 18.9% | 16.1% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conner Skewes | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 2.1% |
| Daniel Erisman | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 21.4% | 18.6% |
| Teresa Dang | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 4.1% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| Sean Kenealy | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 1.9% |
| Corbin Stanley | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 15.6% | 53.6% |
| Bella Valente | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 17.5% | 7.1% |
| John Flanagan | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 9.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.