← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Boston College2.97+2.84vs Predicted
-
2University of Vermont2.68+2.41vs Predicted
-
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.65+1.67vs Predicted
-
5Boston University2.74-0.52vs Predicted
-
6Roger Williams University2.53-1.20vs Predicted
-
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.53+0.09vs Predicted
-
8Bowdoin College1.77-1.66vs Predicted
-
9Harvard University1.67-2.41vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont2.74-5.59vs Predicted
-
11McGill University-0.38-1.00vs Predicted
-
13University of New Hampshire0.10-3.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.84Boston College2.970.2%1st Place
-
4.41University of Vermont2.680.1%1st Place
-
4.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.650.1%1st Place
-
4.48Boston University2.740.1%1st Place
-
4.8Roger Williams University2.530.1%1st Place
-
7.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.530.0%1st Place
-
6.34Bowdoin College1.770.1%1st Place
-
6.59Harvard University1.670.1%1st Place
-
4.41University of Vermont2.740.1%1st Place
-
10.0McGill University-0.380.0%1st Place
-
9.38University of New Hampshire0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Donahue | 16.6% | 17.0% | 16.3% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Sturges | 13.3% | 14.8% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Steven Drapcho | 12.0% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Law | 13.8% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Paige | 13.3% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Neil Forrester | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 21.7% | 14.0% | 4.1% |
| Ruth Bodell | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.8% |
| Nick Waldo | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 11.0% | 2.4% |
| Hunter Mumma | 13.8% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Stephanie Clement | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 22.1% | 58.1% |
| Whit Durant | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 11.9% | 36.4% | 32.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.