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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.85+7.84vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.05+5.55vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+7.92vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.92+4.50vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.42+5.99vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.49+3.24vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.61+1.20vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+1.71vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.36vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.38+0.11vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-1.04vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.38-2.65vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.04-1.73vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.40-4.42vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.75-6.16vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.20-6.31vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College2.90-8.76vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.12-7.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.84Brown University2.856.1%1st Place
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7.55Harvard University3.059.3%1st Place
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10.92University of Rhode Island2.783.9%1st Place
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8.5Yale University2.926.2%1st Place
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10.99University of Pennsylvania2.424.3%1st Place
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9.24College of Charleston2.495.5%1st Place
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8.2Stanford University2.616.7%1st Place
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9.71Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.6%1st Place
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9.36U. S. Naval Academy2.605.7%1st Place
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10.11Bowdoin College2.384.9%1st Place
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9.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.0%1st Place
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9.35Cornell University2.385.7%1st Place
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11.27Tulane University2.043.5%1st Place
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9.58Roger Williams University2.405.3%1st Place
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8.84Georgetown University2.757.3%1st Place
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9.69Boston College2.204.5%1st Place
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8.24Dartmouth College2.907.3%1st Place
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10.63Tufts University2.124.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 10.2% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 11.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% |
| Bridget Green | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 14.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.