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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.75+8.02vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.85+6.76vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.04+8.34vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.90+4.01vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.42+5.81vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+3.49vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.78+3.95vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38+1.27vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.40+0.57vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.05-2.41vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-1.09vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.20-2.08vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.60-3.65vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.61-5.76vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.92-6.48vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.49-6.89vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.12-6.16vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.38-7.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.02Georgetown University2.755.8%1st Place
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8.76Brown University2.856.6%1st Place
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11.34Tulane University2.043.7%1st Place
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8.01Dartmouth College2.908.3%1st Place
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10.81University of Pennsylvania2.424.2%1st Place
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9.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.3%1st Place
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10.95University of Rhode Island2.784.5%1st Place
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9.27Cornell University2.384.9%1st Place
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9.57Roger Williams University2.405.1%1st Place
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7.59Harvard University3.059.4%1st Place
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9.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.484.5%1st Place
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9.92Boston College2.204.0%1st Place
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9.35U. S. Naval Academy2.605.6%1st Place
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8.24Stanford University2.617.5%1st Place
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8.52Yale University2.926.2%1st Place
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9.11College of Charleston2.495.8%1st Place
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10.84Tufts University2.123.8%1st Place
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10.31Bowdoin College2.385.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 12.6% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.2% |
| Bridget Green | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.