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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.92+7.27vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.90+6.21vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+6.93vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+5.55vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.12+5.67vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.61+2.40vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+2.62vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.40+1.61vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.75-0.13vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.85-1.09vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.38-0.87vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.38-2.69vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.20-3.18vs Predicted
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14Harvard University3.05-6.37vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.47-5.76vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island2.78-5.30vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.42-6.12vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.04-6.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.27Yale University2.926.4%1st Place
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8.21Dartmouth College2.907.1%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.484.8%1st Place
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9.55U. S. Naval Academy2.605.9%1st Place
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10.67Tufts University2.124.3%1st Place
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8.4Stanford University2.617.8%1st Place
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9.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.6%1st Place
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9.61Roger Williams University2.404.7%1st Place
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8.87Georgetown University2.756.8%1st Place
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8.91Brown University2.856.2%1st Place
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10.13Bowdoin College2.384.8%1st Place
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9.31Cornell University2.385.9%1st Place
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9.82Boston College2.204.9%1st Place
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7.63Harvard University3.058.2%1st Place
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9.24College of Charleston2.475.9%1st Place
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10.7University of Rhode Island2.784.2%1st Place
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10.88University of Pennsylvania2.422.9%1st Place
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11.26Tulane University2.043.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Nicolosi | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% |
| Bridget Green | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| Alexander Gonzalez | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 13.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.