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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.05+6.77vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.90+6.16vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.92+5.46vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+5.66vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.42+5.96vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.38+3.26vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.20+2.94vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.85+0.92vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.28+0.73vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston2.47-0.56vs Predicted
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11Stanford University2.61-2.69vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.40-2.28vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.12-2.16vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.75-4.75vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.38-4.70vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island2.78-5.30vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.60-7.32vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-8.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.77Harvard University3.057.8%1st Place
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8.16Dartmouth College2.907.7%1st Place
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8.46Yale University2.927.1%1st Place
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9.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.5%1st Place
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10.96University of Pennsylvania2.423.5%1st Place
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9.26Cornell University2.386.1%1st Place
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9.94Boston College2.204.7%1st Place
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8.92Brown University2.855.9%1st Place
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9.73Tulane University2.285.3%1st Place
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9.44College of Charleston2.475.2%1st Place
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8.31Stanford University2.616.5%1st Place
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9.72Roger Williams University2.405.4%1st Place
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10.84Tufts University2.124.7%1st Place
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9.25Georgetown University2.755.9%1st Place
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10.3Bowdoin College2.384.2%1st Place
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10.7University of Rhode Island2.784.2%1st Place
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9.68U. S. Naval Academy2.605.1%1st Place
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9.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 11.8% |
| Bridget Green | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% |
| Connor Nelson | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% |
| Alexander Gonzalez | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.