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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.90+7.23vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.42+9.03vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.40+6.68vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.20+5.75vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+4.74vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.05+1.84vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.28+2.86vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.61+0.20vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.85-0.13vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.12+1.18vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.47-1.71vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.60-2.11vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.38-3.73vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.92-5.73vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.78-4.18vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.38-5.77vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University2.75-8.03vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-8.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.23Dartmouth College2.907.3%1st Place
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11.03University of Pennsylvania2.423.5%1st Place
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9.68Roger Williams University2.405.1%1st Place
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9.75Boston College2.205.7%1st Place
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9.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.9%1st Place
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7.84Harvard University3.057.7%1st Place
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9.86Tulane University2.285.0%1st Place
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8.2Stanford University2.617.5%1st Place
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8.87Brown University2.856.8%1st Place
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11.18Tufts University2.123.4%1st Place
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9.29College of Charleston2.475.2%1st Place
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9.89U. S. Naval Academy2.605.1%1st Place
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9.27Cornell University2.385.4%1st Place
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8.27Yale University2.927.0%1st Place
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10.82University of Rhode Island2.784.0%1st Place
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10.23Bowdoin College2.384.5%1st Place
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8.97Georgetown University2.755.7%1st Place
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9.86U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Jordan Bruce | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 11.9% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.5% |
| Alexander Gonzalez | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% |
| Bridget Green | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.