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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.85+7.47vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+7.37vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.05+4.48vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.90+3.73vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.38+3.69vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.75+2.70vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+2.20vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.61-0.28vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.78+1.29vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.12+0.40vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.20-1.76vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.92-4.10vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.38-3.31vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.40-4.76vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.28-5.57vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.42-5.51vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.60-8.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.47Brown University2.857.1%1st Place
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9.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.5%1st Place
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7.48Harvard University3.058.6%1st Place
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7.73Dartmouth College2.907.5%1st Place
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8.69Cornell University2.386.2%1st Place
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8.7Georgetown University2.755.8%1st Place
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9.2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.9%1st Place
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7.72Stanford University2.618.2%1st Place
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10.29University of Rhode Island2.784.7%1st Place
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10.4Tufts University2.124.0%1st Place
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9.24Boston College2.204.8%1st Place
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7.9Yale University2.928.0%1st Place
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9.69Bowdoin College2.385.1%1st Place
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9.24Roger Williams University2.405.8%1st Place
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9.43Tulane University2.285.2%1st Place
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10.49University of Pennsylvania2.423.5%1st Place
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8.97U. S. Naval Academy2.605.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Bridget Green | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 11.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 12.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.