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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.75+7.53vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.92+5.86vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.12+7.24vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+5.11vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+4.17vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.20+3.43vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.90+0.81vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.42+2.43vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.78+1.35vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.28-0.63vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-1.87vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.85-3.68vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.06-2.81vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.40-4.94vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.05-7.71vs Predicted
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16Stanford University2.61-8.08vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.38-8.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.53Georgetown University2.757.0%1st Place
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7.86Yale University2.927.1%1st Place
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10.24Tufts University2.124.2%1st Place
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9.11U. S. Naval Academy2.605.3%1st Place
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9.17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.2%1st Place
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9.43Boston College2.205.3%1st Place
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7.81Dartmouth College2.907.6%1st Place
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10.43University of Pennsylvania2.424.0%1st Place
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10.35University of Rhode Island2.783.8%1st Place
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9.37Tulane University2.285.8%1st Place
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9.13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.4%1st Place
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8.32Brown University2.857.4%1st Place
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10.19Bowdoin College2.064.5%1st Place
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9.06Roger Williams University2.405.7%1st Place
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7.29Harvard University3.057.6%1st Place
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7.92Stanford University2.617.5%1st Place
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8.8Cornell University2.386.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 11.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.7% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.0% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Sam Bonauto | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% |
| Bridget Green | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.