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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.72+3.19vs Predicted
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2Stanford University4.19+1.23vs Predicted
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3Stanford University4.05+0.50vs Predicted
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4Santa Clara University2.22+3.95vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy2.25+2.94vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.90-2.30vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California2.64-0.20vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.50+2.18vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+0.84vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz1.41+0.74vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley2.12-2.52vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay1.64-1.90vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.36+2.32vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz0.29-0.26vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.89-2.84vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.07-1.44vs Predicted
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17California Poly Maritime Academy-0.14-1.89vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis0.42-4.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.19Stanford University3.720.2%1st Place
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3.23Stanford University4.190.2%1st Place
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3.5Stanford University4.050.2%1st Place
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7.95Santa Clara University2.220.0%1st Place
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7.94California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.0%1st Place
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3.7Stanford University3.900.2%1st Place
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6.8University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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10.18University of California at Los Angeles1.500.0%1st Place
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9.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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10.74University of California at Santa Cruz1.410.0%1st Place
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8.48University of California at Berkeley2.120.0%1st Place
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10.1California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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15.32University of California at Davis-0.360.0%1st Place
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13.74University of California at Santa Cruz0.290.0%1st Place
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12.16University of California at San Diego0.890.0%1st Place
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14.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.070.0%1st Place
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15.11California Poly Maritime Academy-0.140.0%1st Place
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13.44University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Toole | 15.3% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 15.1% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Chung | 21.5% | 21.9% | 16.7% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Laube | 19.2% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Wood | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 17.8% | 18.8% | 15.6% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Edwards | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Erik Lund | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Tommy Pastalka | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Travis Benton | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Haney | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Wilkerson | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 18.5% | 32.3% |
| Emma Shaw | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 17.7% | 9.3% |
| Ray Carley | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Macy Stout | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 16.7% | 17.4% | 18.4% |
| Michael Midgley | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 19.6% | 26.7% |
| Lucas Murray | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 8.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.