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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+8.84vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University1.49+6.61vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+4.54vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+6.95vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.45-0.18vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22-0.09vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.42+1.40vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College0.71+3.17vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College1.51-0.71vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.14-0.84vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.80-0.41vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University0.46-3.17vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.72-2.40vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.59-6.10vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.39-6.44vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.84-5.50vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.43-5.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.094.6%1st Place
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8.61Northwestern University1.495.5%1st Place
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7.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.587.5%1st Place
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10.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.1%1st Place
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4.82Harvard University2.4515.4%1st Place
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5.91Brown University2.2212.1%1st Place
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8.4University of Rhode Island1.426.0%1st Place
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11.17Connecticut College0.712.1%1st Place
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8.29Bowdoin College1.515.9%1st Place
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9.16Boston University1.144.5%1st Place
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10.59University of Vermont0.804.3%1st Place
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8.83Salve Regina University0.465.2%1st Place
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10.6Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.723.8%1st Place
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7.9Yale University1.596.7%1st Place
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8.56Northeastern University1.395.8%1st Place
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10.5Princeton University0.843.9%1st Place
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11.32Connecticut College0.432.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Derry | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% |
| Shea Smith | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| Robert Ulmer | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 12.1% |
| Robby Meek | 15.4% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mason Stang | 12.1% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Henry Lee | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Wade Anthony | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 14.4% |
| Kyra Phelan | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.7% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.2% |
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 11.1% |
| Emil Tullberg | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% |
| Tyler Egeli | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% |
| Mathias Reimer | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Everett Nash | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Asher Green | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% |
| Andrew Powers | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 14.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.