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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University1.49+7.68vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College1.51+5.98vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+6.78vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.22+1.98vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+2.49vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University0.46+3.18vs Predicted
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7Yale University1.59+0.76vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.45-3.09vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.39-0.55vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.14-0.69vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+0.04vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.80-1.62vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.42-4.49vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.84-3.58vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.71-3.72vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.43-4.70vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.72-6.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.68Northwestern University1.495.7%1st Place
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7.98Bowdoin College1.516.4%1st Place
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9.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.094.2%1st Place
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5.98Brown University2.2211.3%1st Place
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7.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.588.1%1st Place
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9.18Salve Regina University0.465.1%1st Place
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7.76Yale University1.596.7%1st Place
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4.91Harvard University2.4515.8%1st Place
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8.45Northeastern University1.396.5%1st Place
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9.31Boston University1.144.8%1st Place
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11.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.1%1st Place
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10.38University of Vermont0.803.5%1st Place
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8.51University of Rhode Island1.425.8%1st Place
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10.42Princeton University0.843.7%1st Place
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11.28Connecticut College0.712.6%1st Place
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11.3Connecticut College0.432.9%1st Place
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10.54Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.724.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Smith | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Kyra Phelan | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Jack Derry | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% |
| Mason Stang | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Robert Ulmer | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Emil Tullberg | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% |
| Mathias Reimer | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| Robby Meek | 15.8% | 14.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Everett Nash | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 13.2% |
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% |
| Henry Lee | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Asher Green | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% |
| Wade Anthony | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 14.3% |
| Andrew Powers | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 16.3% |
| Tyler Egeli | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.