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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+6.51vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.42+6.48vs Predicted
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3Yale University1.59+4.90vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College1.84+3.45vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University0.46+4.34vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.45-1.11vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.39+1.54vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.49+0.76vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+2.12vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.22-4.11vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.14-1.72vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.71-0.88vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.72-2.48vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.80-3.27vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.43-3.82vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.84-5.54vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-7.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.587.3%1st Place
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8.48University of Rhode Island1.425.7%1st Place
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7.9Yale University1.596.2%1st Place
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7.45Bowdoin College1.847.4%1st Place
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9.34Salve Regina University0.464.5%1st Place
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4.89Harvard University2.4515.8%1st Place
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8.54Northeastern University1.395.1%1st Place
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8.76Northwestern University1.495.3%1st Place
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11.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.6%1st Place
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5.89Brown University2.2213.4%1st Place
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9.28Boston University1.145.3%1st Place
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11.12Connecticut College0.712.9%1st Place
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10.52Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.723.9%1st Place
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10.73University of Vermont0.803.2%1st Place
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11.18Connecticut College0.433.8%1st Place
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10.46Princeton University0.843.4%1st Place
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9.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.094.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Ulmer | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Henry Lee | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Mathias Reimer | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Lauren Russler | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Emil Tullberg | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% |
| Robby Meek | 15.8% | 15.2% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Everett Nash | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| Shea Smith | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 14.4% |
| Mason Stang | 13.4% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Tiare Sierra | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| Wade Anthony | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 12.6% |
| Tyler Egeli | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.5% |
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% |
| Andrew Powers | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 13.8% |
| Asher Green | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.9% |
| Jack Derry | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.