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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands2.77+3.82vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.64+3.13vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.80-0.26vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine2.17+2.39vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.50+2.94vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.87-1.50vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands2.77-2.18vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.57-2.72vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University1.51-0.97vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego2.19-3.66vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.82-1.40vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-4.47vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University0.44-2.52vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara-0.83-1.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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5.13University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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2.74Stanford University3.800.3%1st Place
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6.39University of California at Irvine2.170.1%1st Place
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7.94University of California at Los Angeles1.500.0%1st Place
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4.5University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.1%1st Place
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4.82California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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5.28University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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8.03Arizona State University1.510.0%1st Place
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6.34University of California at San Diego2.190.1%1st Place
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9.6University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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7.53Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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10.48Arizona State University0.440.0%1st Place
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12.22University of California at Santa Barbara-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Dair | 10.4% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 10.4% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hans Henken | 31.5% | 22.3% | 17.6% | 13.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Hoover | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Edwards | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Kaschak | 13.0% | 14.2% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 10.4% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 2.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 15.3% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Eric Alamillo | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 19.6% | 22.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Austin Hodges | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 16.5% | 32.5% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Preston | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 69.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.