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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands2.77+3.82vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.80+0.68vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.57+2.37vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine2.17+2.36vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.87-0.46vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.64-0.95vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.82+2.50vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands2.77-3.18vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles1.50-1.05vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University1.51-1.94vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-3.33vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.44-1.68vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego2.19-6.56vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara-0.83-1.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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2.68Stanford University3.800.3%1st Place
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5.37University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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6.36University of California at Irvine2.170.1%1st Place
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4.54University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.1%1st Place
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5.05University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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9.5University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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4.82California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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7.95University of California at Los Angeles1.500.0%1st Place
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8.06Arizona State University1.510.0%1st Place
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7.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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10.32Arizona State University0.440.0%1st Place
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6.44University of California at San Diego2.190.1%1st Place
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12.25University of California at Santa Barbara-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Dair | 11.3% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hans Henken | 33.8% | 22.0% | 18.1% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 7.8% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brian Hoover | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Kaschak | 12.8% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 10.4% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 19.7% | 23.9% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 11.3% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Edwards | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 8.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Austin Hodges | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 11.3% | 17.9% | 30.0% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| Eric Alamillo | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Preston | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 13.6% | 71.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.