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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.80+1.72vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.87+2.44vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands2.77+1.76vs Predicted
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4California State University Channel Islands2.77+0.76vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego2.19+1.33vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.64-0.77vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+0.81vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine2.17-1.95vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California2.57-3.77vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles1.50-1.89vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University1.51-2.86vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.44-1.52vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles0.82-3.30vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara-0.83-1.77vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-2.87-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.72Stanford University3.800.3%1st Place
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4.44University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.1%1st Place
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4.76California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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4.76California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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6.33University of California at San Diego2.190.0%1st Place
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5.23University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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7.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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6.05University of California at Irvine2.170.1%1st Place
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5.23University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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8.11University of California at Los Angeles1.500.0%1st Place
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8.14Arizona State University1.510.0%1st Place
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10.48Arizona State University0.440.0%1st Place
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9.7University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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12.23University of California at Santa Barbara-0.830.0%1st Place
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13.77University of California at San Diego-2.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Henken | 33.5% | 22.9% | 15.0% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Kaschak | 12.5% | 15.1% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Alamillo | 4.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 8.2% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 4.1% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Hoover | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 10.1% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Edwards | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 17.0% | 13.2% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Hodges | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 17.6% | 30.8% | 16.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 17.4% | 23.1% | 9.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Preston | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 7.6% | 13.0% | 58.8% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| Ellen Ni Chathail | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 8.6% | 87.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.