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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.57+4.25vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+5.58vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.64+2.10vs Predicted
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4California State University Channel Islands2.77+0.87vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.80-2.26vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine2.17+0.39vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands2.77-2.13vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.87-3.60vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles1.50-1.03vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego2.19-3.69vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University1.51-2.81vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.82-2.26vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University0.44-2.53vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara-0.83-1.79vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-2.87-1.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.25University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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7.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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5.1University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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4.87California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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2.74Stanford University3.800.3%1st Place
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6.39University of California at Irvine2.170.1%1st Place
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4.87California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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4.4University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.1%1st Place
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7.97University of California at Los Angeles1.500.0%1st Place
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6.31University of California at San Diego2.190.1%1st Place
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8.19Arizona State University1.510.0%1st Place
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9.74University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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10.47Arizona State University0.440.0%1st Place
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12.21University of California at Santa Barbara-0.830.0%1st Place
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13.78University of California at San Diego-2.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Rupp | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 9.9% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hans Henken | 30.6% | 23.4% | 18.9% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Hoover | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 9.9% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Kaschak | 15.0% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Edwards | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Alamillo | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 17.4% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 21.6% | 22.8% | 8.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Austin Hodges | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 17.4% | 30.8% | 16.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Preston | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 13.9% | 58.1% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Ellen Ni Chathail | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 9.2% | 87.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.