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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+1.69vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine1.71+3.58vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.04+0.11vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.69+1.84vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.81+0.34vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.57-2.11vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.37+1.17vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.57-2.18vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands0.37-0.83vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.62-2.09vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.09-0.78vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.77-4.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.69University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.3%1st Place
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5.58University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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3.11Stanford University3.040.2%1st Place
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5.84University of Southern California1.690.1%1st Place
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5.34Brown University1.810.1%1st Place
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3.89University of Southern California2.570.2%1st Place
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8.17California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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5.82University of California at San Diego1.570.1%1st Place
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8.17California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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7.91Arizona State University0.620.0%1st Place
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10.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.090.0%1st Place
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7.44Arizona State University0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sullivan | 29.1% | 25.0% | 18.0% | 13.1% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Dahl | 21.6% | 22.1% | 18.7% | 16.0% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Kivlovitz | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Bailey | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mallory Schluter | 15.4% | 16.0% | 16.5% | 17.2% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 16.8% | 29.5% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nguyen | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 16.8% | 29.5% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Garrigan | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 19.4% | 22.9% | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| Curtis Wagner | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 12.8% | 69.8% | 0.0% |
| Steven Cassingham | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 15.5% | 18.3% | 18.5% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.