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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College0.60+3.02vs Predicted
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2Bentley University-1.10+8.02vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire-0.00+4.94vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.69+4.34vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire-0.99+4.39vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont-0.02-0.33vs Predicted
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7McGill University-0.89+1.90vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University-0.80+0.68vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College-1.42+1.37vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.43+1.17vs Predicted
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11McGill University-0.37-3.99vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy-0.65-3.90vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.20-2.04vs Predicted
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14Boston University-0.79-5.37vs Predicted
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15University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42-3.51vs Predicted
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16Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.82-3.65vs Predicted
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17Williams College-0.90-7.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.02Connecticut College0.6021.1%1st Place
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10.02Bentley University-1.103.5%1st Place
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7.94University of New Hampshire-0.005.2%1st Place
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8.34Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.695.1%1st Place
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9.39University of New Hampshire-0.994.2%1st Place
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5.67University of Vermont-0.0212.2%1st Place
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8.9McGill University-0.894.5%1st Place
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8.68Northeastern University-0.805.1%1st Place
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10.37Middlebury College-1.423.7%1st Place
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11.17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.432.6%1st Place
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7.01McGill University-0.377.7%1st Place
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8.1Maine Maritime Academy-0.656.4%1st Place
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10.96University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.203.5%1st Place
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8.63Boston University-0.794.8%1st Place
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11.49University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.422.9%1st Place
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12.35Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.822.8%1st Place
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9.98Williams College-0.904.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fritz Baldauf | 21.1% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilfred Hynes | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% |
| James Sullivan | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Henry Poynter | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.1% |
| William Denker | 12.2% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Adrien Blanc | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| William Procter | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Joseph Gedraitis | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
| Colston Howell | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Griffin Stolp | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Cole Perra | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.3% |
| Christopher Macken | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Andy Giaya | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 15.3% |
| Jessica Elmhurst | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 24.1% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.